Recent research

Publication type: Working paper

Title: Firms' responses to foreign demand shock: The case of Indonesia and the GFC

Author(s): Sulistiyo K. Ardiyono,Arianto A. Patunru

Excerpt:

Export-oriented manufacturing generally create jobs. But a few recent studies on Indonesian manufacturing based on input-output tables reported a declining power of this sector in creating jobs. Using firm-level data to examine manufacturing employment during the global financial crisis (GFC), we find that a 10% increase in the degree of export orientation rises the manufacturing employment by about 1% on average, depending on the firm’s capital intensity.

Date of publication: 2022

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Publication type: Working paper

Title: Structural transformation away from agriculture: What role for trade?

Author(s): Kym Anderson,Sundar Ponnusamy

Excerpt:

An understanding of how and why economies structurally transform away from agriculture as they grow is crucial for developing sensible farm and food policies. Typically, analysts who study this and related structural change issues focus on sectoral shares of gross domestic product (GDP) and employment. This paper draws on trade theory to focus as well on exports. It also notes that the trade costs of some products are too high at early stages of development to make international trade profitable, so a nontradables sector is recognized.

Date of publication: 2022

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Publication type: Working paper

Title: Socio-economic and environmental impact of intended decarbonisation policies in the East Asian region

Author(s): Yuventus Effendi,Budy P. Resosudarmo

Excerpt:

Even though there has been strong evidence that global warming has negative impacts on an economy, global carbon emissions have been increasing. Carbon emissions in the East Asia region has also shown a similar trend. The governments in East Asia have not implemented effective decarbonisation policies, presumably because so far limited analysis of the socio-economic and environmental impacts of these policies has been undertaken.

Date of publication: 2022

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Publication type: Working paper

Title: Research and productivity in Indonesian agriculture

Author(s): Peter Warr

Excerpt:

Total factor productivity growth contributed 38 per cent of Indonesia’s agricultural output growth from the mid-1970s to the mid-2000s. This study uses time series data analysed with the error correction mechanism to examine the contribution of Indonesian publicly funded agricultural research to this outcome, allowing for other possible determinants of productivity growth, including international agricultural research, extension, government price policy and weather. The results imply a 27% real annual rate of return from a marginal increase in Indonesian agricultural research expenditure.

Date of publication: 2022

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Publication type: Working paper

Title: The effect of gasoline prices on suburban housing values in China

Author(s): Tong Zhang,Paul J. Burke

Excerpt:

By raising road transportation costs, an increase in gasoline prices should be expected to reduce housing demand in locations further from the central business district (CBD) relative to inner-city locations. This study uses a monthly real estate area-level dataset for 19 large cities in China over 2010–2018 to investigate the impact of gasoline prices on intra-city spatial differentials in housing prices.

Date of publication: 2022

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Publication type: Working paper

Title: ASEAN’s newer member countries in two financial crises: Impact, response and lessons

Author(s): Jayant Menon

Excerpt:

ASEAN has been through two major financial crises in the last quarter century: the 1997-98 Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) and the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Although there is a voluminous literature covering the original five members, it has largely ignored the newer members – Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar and Vietnam (BCLMV). For the first time, a systematic analysis of the experience of the newer members of ASEAN relating to the AFC and the GFC focusing on impact, policy response and lessons is provided.

Date of publication: 2021

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Publication type: Working paper

Title: Agriculture’s globalization: Endowments, technologies, tastes and policies

Author(s): Kym Anderson

Excerpt:

The history of agricultural trade stretches back more than ten millennia, but it became more inter-continental from the 17th century and much denser in the 19th century following the repeal of Britain’s protective Corn Laws in 1846 and major declines in international trade costs. Trade was chaotic in the period bookended by the two world wars, but trade policy anarchy gave way to greater certainty after the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) was signed in 1947.

Date of publication: 2021

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Publication type: Working paper

Title: Food policy in a more volatile climate and trade environment

Author(s): Kym Anderson

Excerpt:

Providing affordable access to enough healthy and safe food for an ever-more-affluent and growing world population has become more challenging in the face of climate change, rising income inequality and a more uncertain global trade environment. Agriculture is expected to contribute more, but is under pressure in both high-income and developing countries to do so more sustainably and inclusively. This paper reviews the roles of food policy in this changing setting.

Date of publication: 2021

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