The effects of political shocks on international trade: evidence from China and major partners, 1998-2018

Crawford School of Public Policy
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Event details

PhD Seminar (Econ)

Date & time

Friday 12 November 2021


Online via Zoom


Vishesh Agarwal

The study develops a game-theoretical framework in which a bi-directional relationship exists between trade and political conflict. The theoretical framework is used as a basis to identify the short- and long-term effects of moderate shocks in political conflict on merchandise goods trade between China and major trading partners between 1998-2018 using vector-auto-regression models. The analysis is complemented by an examination of the effects of political shocks on trade disaggregated by product-type. The results suggest that although trade ties are not independent of conflict, they have not been affected by conflict significantly in this period, and the effects of political conflict on trade vary by product-type.

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