Estimating the optimal timing policy of operationalising the Kaliwa Dam

Crawford School of Public Policy

Event details

PhD Seminar (Econ)

Date & time

Friday 10 September 2021


Online via Zoom


Albert Lamberte

To address the water supply problems in Metro Manila, Philippines, the national government is planning to construct the Kaliwa Dam as an added storage and operationalise it by 2024. Using a dynamic model, the research estimates the optimal time to operationalise the Kaliwa Dam. The dynamic model is calibrate to the conditions of Metro Manila, as well as considering both Public-private-partnership and Overseas Development Assistance financing schemes. The results suggest that the earliest time to build the Kaliwa Dam is by 2042, considering the current ODA scheme. Thus, if the dam is built before 2042, this will result to prematurely operationalising the additional storage. The results further suggest that the optimal timing is marginally sensitive on lower discount rates for the east zone only. Additionally, despite the low inflows during the very hot dry weather scenario, the optimal time to operationalise the Kaliwa Dam did not change. The changes in the optimal time are only evident considering the different household growth rates.

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