This seminar examines the role played by reference cases in dynamic economic modelling as a stylised counterfactual against which the effects of economic policies can be assessed over time. The seminar will cover the development of reference cases and insights gained from their development of a general modelling reference case to 2059-60 for the Productivity Commission. The reference case focuses on the long-term drivers of structural change in the Australian economy abstracting from short term and cycle factors. The presentation will also detail some of the associated enhancements made to the Victoria University Multi Region (VUMR) model of the Australian and state and territory economies (formerly known as the Monash Multi Regional forecasting (MMRF) model).

Owen Gabbitas is a Research Manager at the Productivity Commission with over 28 years of experience in applied economic research. He has worked across in a wide range of subject matter areas that include public policy reforms, productivity, energy, innovation, health and government finance. He has extensive experience in computable general equilibrium modelling and other applied techniques. Owen has an Honours Degree in economics from the Australian National University.