Poverty, inequality and natural disasters: Myanmar, 2005 to 2010
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ACDE Seminar
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Poverty reduction is normally associated with economic growth. The faster the growth the more rapid the poverty reduction. No growth typically means no reduction in poverty incidence, or even an increase. This paper analyses a recent five-year episode in Myanmar (formerly Burma) in which, somewhat surprisingly, poverty incidence declined substantially, but average real consumption expenditures barely changed. The distribution of the economic pie shifted significantly in favor of the poor while the overall size of the pie hardly changed. The paper examines the possibility that the hitherto unexplained reduction in measured inequality was caused by a natural disaster—Cyclone Nargis—which devastated parts of Myanmar in May 2008. This hypothesis is motivated by a recent book by Walter Scheidel, The Great Leveler, which argues that historically, reductions in inequality are normally due to either man-made disasters or natural disasters. Does this story work for Myanmar?
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